![]() ![]() Carroll said this is reassuring for the markets but also shows that investors are more sophisticated than in any time during his 37-year career. Conversely, Erdmann sees large scale bearish sentiment amongst investors as a sign to be bullish.īill Carroll, who oversees 3,000 financial advisors as the managing director of UBS wealth management in the eastern division, echoed that sentiment saying that he hasn’t seen the mass panic he saw during other financial crises. “There is a lot to be concerned about that will bring headwinds to the market, but this is not a massive unwind.”Įrdmann pointed out that while investors are feeling pain, there has not been large scale capitulation in the market with investors running for the doors, a sign that would be ominous and potentially take wind out of his sails. “Every gym and delicatessen has CNBC on and there's so much focus on the short term,” Erdmann said. Combined with better economic data from China and globally going into 2023, Shalett foresees the year ending on a much higher note than the present uncertainty.ĭespite the cautious optimism on Wall Street, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reached a record low earlier this month. Once expectations are cut and the resulting drop takes place, Shalett thinks that will mark the bottom and allow the market to return to what she describes as a “secular bull market.”Īs far as timing, Shalett sees a reset on earnings expectations following Q2 and Q3 reports in July and October to be followed by a year-end rally amidst lower inflation and as a midterm election likely shifts the balance of power in Congress. ![]() With inflation, the war in Ukraine and a hawkish Fed already priced into the markets, she surmises that the market continues to drop because of concerns over corporate earnings which she characterizes as the next shoe to fall. Shalett expects the repricing of rates and valuations to lead to a slowing of the economy and earnings expectations to come down as the bear market continues. “This is what happens when policy changes as rapidly and radically as it has, interest rates move up and price to earnings ratios move down.” “We're in the bottom of the eighth inning of a very textbook, cyclical bear market,” said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley MS wealth management. ![]()
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